Lookout Key West...Wilma is Coming..

I’ve gently commented on other people’s sites before on the topic of Key West’s real vulnerability to a severe hurricane. All hurricanes are dangerous monsters but some are worse than others.
I was fortunate that during a roughly twelve year stay no hurricane came sufficiently close to disrupt life on the island.
Key West has some natural defenses that protect it from the most dangerous portion of most hurricanes, the storm surge. The island is surrounded on the South and Eastern sides by “flats”…relatively shallow water 3 to 12 feet deep which extends outward to a “reef” 7 to 12 miles offshore. The reef and the flats neutralize wave activity because you need 3 and ½ feet of water depth for each foot of above the surface wave action. It’s also the reason people don’t go to the Keys to surf…there isn’t any. Please note that this doesn’t mean that water can’t rise and flood, it still can but it isn’t the same thing. The other natural defense that protects Key West from the South and East is the island of Cuba which has mountainous peaks on it which are notorious for breaking up the organization of the storms.
That said, Key West is very vulnerable to a hurricane that strikes the Island coming from the Southwest side. (pictured below).
This is the side the deepwater harbor is on, that people go to see the sunset everyday. It is one of the main reasons Key West grew and developed commercially. The US Navy operated a Naval Base here in the 19th and 20th Century. Caribbean cruise ships dock there nowadays as well as many other ocean going vessels.
Hurricane Wilma is currently a category 5 storm.
A late weekend arrival close to Key West coming from its current projected path could bring a 20 to 28 foot storm surge rolling right up the “main ship channel” and literally wipe the city of Key West off the face of the earth (The highest land point on the 3 ½ by 1 mile island “Solarus Hill” is a whole 12 feet above sea level). It happened once before, in 1846, when a powerful hurricane swept over Key West and left only three manmade structures standing. The inhabitants who survived were swept into the “mangroves” and held on until the storm was over.
I’m praying that this killer hurricane significantly weakens down to a puff of wind between now and a weekend Florida landfall.
(The Wilma Track Chart is being updated as it changes.)

Addendum: 10-22 2:30 PM It's 71 hours since this post was originally written. Wilma is still hanging around Cancun and its winds have dropped down to 110 mph. The forecasted track of the storm hasn't changed for over 4 days although the time line keeps lengthening. As presently projected even if Wilma goes directly over the Keys it will be similar to "Floyd" in 1987 which blew a few poles over and lifted off a roof or two, that is assuming the storm doesn't strengthen again and undergoes the additional weakening most forecasters are predicting.

Addendum: 10-23 11:50 PM The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Wilma to a category 3 with 115 mph winds + it is moving in at 18 MPH toward Key West coming from the worst angle possible. Things could get very nasty overnight on the island where approximately 20,000 people have chosen not to leave...I would expect major flooding of a type Key West has not seen from a hurricane since 1919.